Anne Dos Santos, professor at University of California, discusses the future of  secessionism.

Question: Considering the recent secessionist movements of Kosovo, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, what do you think the future holds for other secessionist movements? Is it possible that the success of Kosovo will spark other movements around the world?

Dos Santos: That’s a really good question and that’s something that I have been thinking about myself. The fact that the United States and about 45 other countries have so easily recognized Kosovo as an independent country does set a precedent for other countries. I’m surprised that Russia has gone ahead and recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia when it has its own Chechen rebels demanding independence from Russia. The fact that Kosovo managed to declare itself independent and did get at least 46 countries to recognize it does open doors for other countries who are wanting or seeking independence.

Question: Which current movements are most likely to emerge as new states?

Dos Santos: I think that Tibet will be hard because China will suppress it right away, being an authoritarian country. Other cases that I would think would be probably in the Caucasus, maybe Crimea from Ukraine or Transnistria from Moldova. I think that in that area, what’s happening right now with South Ossetia and Abkhazia has destabilized security in the Caucasus. I think we probably will see attempts in that region itself, now that Russia has recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia. I think that region has to be watched more than any other. What about Chechnya next? Russia has prevented them in the past, what are they going to be thinking?

Question: Has the United Nations ever tried to create a plan for dealing with secessionist movements? How does the international community plan on responding to these situations in the future?

Dos Santos: In the United Nations, the problem is that China is one of the permanent members of the Security Council. I don’t think China is interested in having a roadmap, especially because it does not want Taiwan and Tibet to be independent. China is not interested in creating a plan and, being a permanent member, it will always veto any measure that tries to facilitate a country’s independence. We have to start with reforming the United Nations, in my opinion.

Question: Which fate do you foresee as more likely for the future of the world: a global European Union where states have sacrificed sovereignty in the interest of one unified super-state, or the fracturing of countries to result in many smaller nation-states?

Dos Santos: I think that some small states are going to keep trying, like Kashmir in India. It will go on and on. It has been the same with the Tamils in Sri Lanka, still ongoing. Some of these have been ongoing for years and years. They will continue but, unfortunately, a lot of these will just remain in a stalemate. Negotiating a solution is always very difficult. They keep dragging it on in a stalemate. I don’t think it will be that easy for smaller states to get independence unless they have support from larger states like Russia or the United States. I don’t think they will be able to go anywhere with their dreams on their own.

Question: Different groups have used different methods to obtain independence, ranging from terrorism to peaceful resistance. What would you advise secessionist movements as the most effective means by which to secure independence?

Dos Santos: In the first place, the post-independent governments [of new states] have lacked the foresight to develop a national identity. They have lacked the foresight to include all ethnic groups. I think the governments have to develop some kind of national identity for the country where they include every group and do not discriminate against the minorities or make them feel that they are being left out. In most of these cases, as with the Tamils in Sri Lanka, Sikhs in India or Bengalis in East Pakistan, and even now with these small nations in the Caucasus, the governments have lacked the foresight to develop this national identity. I think the governments should be working on that, to include all of these [minorities] and negotiate with them. The secessionist groups have resorted to violence after years and years of discrimination. I think it’s that lack of foresight when they became independent, that instead of the government trying to appease the minorities and include them, they kept discriminating against them and made the situation worse. Of course negotiations would be the only way between the two groups but that is showing to be really difficult.

Question: Some of the leaders of the Lakota Native Americans have declared their intent to seek independence from the United States and have cited their attempts as the beginning of an independence movement for all Native Americans. What do you think about this?

Dos Santos: I don’t think it’s going to go anywhere. I don’t think they have the clout, I don’t think they have the funds, and I don’t think they would get support from external [powers]. Recently it’s been in the news that Alaska has talked about secession from the United States. But I don’t think these small movements are going to go anywhere, especially because they’re just too small and I don’t think that they will get support from either external powers or even within the United States.

Question: What has surprised you the most during the course of your research on secessionism?

Dos Santos: I can’t believe that these post-independent governments really did not think, in order to succeed, in order be a great country and to develop both economically, politically, and in all respects, with several ethnic groups within our borders, how do we reach out to all of these groups and how do we reach out so that we can unite and succeed as a country? I can’t believe how some of these governments were so parochial-looking and only tried to further and advance their own majority group at the expense of the minorities. That’s what surprised me, this lack of foresight. They’re just newly independent, they have everything at their disposal but then they just mismanaged and want to suppress the minorities at the advantage of the majority. This is what struck me in most of the cases that I looked at and even some cases that are currently going on.

Question: So far only two countries have recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia: Russia and Nicaragua. Russia has said that, as time passes, more and more countries will eventually recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as well. Do you think this is possible?

Dos Santos: Time will tell, but I really think that more and more countries are not going to recognize [South Ossetia and Abkhazia] because they believe in territorial integrity. I know that they did give in as far as Kosovo is concerned. As far as these two countries, they are really tiny, and there are so many other small cases in that region. I feel that it will just lead to a domino effect if South Ossetia and Abkhazia are recognized by more and more countries. I don’t think it’s going to happen.